Ateneo FactCheck 2013/ PODER Rapid Assessment of the 2013 Elections

Friday, May 17, 2013

Release 2 (16 May 2013). Version 2

General Conduct of Elections 

While generally peaceful and credible, there are setbacks in the conduct of the 2013 elections that require attention. 

  • Voters turnout. Voters turnout is 70%, lower than in 2010 (76%) and even in 2007 mid-term elections (75%). There are 15.6M registered voters that did not vote. 12.3M in 2010 and 11.2M in 2007.
  • Use of PCOS. 200 PCOS are defective. This is less than 1% of the total 78,000 PCOS machines.
  • ERV: generally peaceful. 51 killed, 65 wounded (during election period). In 2010, 54 killed and 74 wounded. In 2007, 56 killed, 69 wounded. But the difference in figure is minimal. Still, violence was part of the elections. 
  • Voters list. Not much of a problem. Unlike in the past elections, disenfranchisement was not a major challenge this elections.
  • Canvassing - This is the major setback in the 2013 elections. 70% completed in 48 hours. Far below than in 2010 election: 78.55% in 11 hours. 

Political Dynasties 

Major political dynasties faced defeat this election: Fua in Siquijor, Jalosjos in Zamboanga del Norte, Garcia in Cebu, Ecleo in Dinagat, Villafuerte in CamSum, Gordon in Olongapo, Bernade in Paranaque, Echiverri in Caloocan, Antonino in GenSan. (Not yet a complete list.)

In the senatorial race, seven (7) are from political dynasties: Estrada, Cayetano, Angara, Villar, Binay, Aquino, Escudero. Five are not from political dynasties: Poe, Legarda, Pimental, Honasan, Trillanes. (Top 12 as of May 16, 11am)

Coalitional/ Party Politics 

In the senatorial race, nine (9) are from Team PNoy; three (3) are from UNA. Breakdown according to mother political party: Liberal - 1, NPC - 1, NP - 3, LDP - 1, PDP-Laban - 2, PM - 1, Independent - 3. Surprisingly, the Liberal Party has only one senator from the list of top senatoriables and Nacionalista Party (Villar's Party, one of Aquino's contender in 2010) has three senators and PDP-Laban has two.

In the House of Representatives, Team PNoy is expected to have the overwhelming majority. Team PNoy - 196, UNA - 10, Lakas - 13, Others - 6, Independent - 7. (As of 15 May, 12mn)

Issues/ Agenda 

Reproductive Health. Six are pro-RH: Poe, Legarda, Cayetano, Escudero, Angara, Aquino. Six are against the RH Bill: Binay, Pimentel, Trillanes, Villar, Ejercito, Honasan. 

Anti-Dynasty Bill. There are four with no clear position: Poe, Legarda, Trillanes, Honasan, Binay. There are two who are against: Villar and Ejercito. There are four pro, but with no track record in pushing for the Bill: Cayetano, Escudero, Angara, Aquino. Only one is pro with track record: Koko Pimentel. 

Party Development Bill. There are three with unknown stand: Binay, Villar, Ejercito. The rest are for the Bill, but only Angara and Legarda have track record in pushing for the Bill. 

FOI Bill. All are supportive, but only seven have known track record in pushing for the bill: Legarda, Cayetano, Escudero, Pimentel, Trillanes, Ejercito, Honasan, Angara. The rest--Poe, Aquino, Binay, Villar--have no track record. 

Women Empowerment Agenda. Four have no women empowerment agenda in their platform and no track record: Binay, Pimentel, Trillanes and Honasan. The rest have women empowerment agenda in their platform and with track record.

Environmental Issues. Among the top 12 senatorial candidates, Grace Poe, Chiz Escudero, Alan Peter Cayetano, Sonny Angara, Bam Aquino, Koko Pimentel, Cynthia Villar, and Gringo Honasan are supportive of the Pro-responsible mining, or the E.O 79,  push forth by the Pnoy administration. E.O 79 is supposed to "lay down very clearly the roadmap on mining sector reforms, including guidelines on environmental protection and responsible mining." Loren Legarda and Antonio Trillanes, on the other hand, are both calling for the repeal of the Mining Act of 1995. Legarda is also most critical of said E.O 79. Meanwhile, Nancy Binay and JV Estrada have nothing to say about the critical environmental issues in the country.